World Test Championship Final: Qualifying Scenarios for India, Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka

The race for the upcoming World Test Championship final is going to be interesting, with 18 races left in this edition. Australia is currently the table topper, while South Africa holds the second position.

While Australia and South Africa are close to the summit game, the numbers three and four teams, Sri Lanka and India also battle for qualification. This means that all four teams now have a chance to reach the final of WTC. However, it all depends on the results of their respective upcoming matches.

So let’s take a look at the qualifying scenarios of Australia, India, Sri Lanka and South Africa.

Australia

Australia leads the table with a points percentage of 75 after 12 games. They are still unsure of qualification as if they lose each of their remaining seven matches in this cycle their percentage will drop to 47.37 and other sides will benefit.

But if the Aussies win all three home tests against South Africa, they will finish with a minimum percentage of 63.16. In that case, even if Australia loses all four to India, they will still finish in the top two

Australia’s Remaining WTC Matches:

• v South Africa, December 17-21, Brisbane
• v South Africa, Dec 26-30, Melbourne
• v South Africa, January 4-8, Sydney
• against India, February 2023, TBD
• against India, February 2023, TBD
• against India, March 2023, TBD
• against India, March 2023, TBD

India

India is fourth on the points table and if they win each of their remaining six tests their percentage will rise to 68.06 which will be enough for a top two finish. Particularly if this happens, Australia’s numbers will drop as they lose four to India.

When it comes to another scenario, if India finishes with a 5-1 win-loss record, their percentage will be 62.5, still guaranteeing qualification as both Australia and South Africa cannot go beyond that number. However, if the runners-up from the previous edition lose two matches, their percentage drops to 56.94, leaving them dependent on other results.

India’s Remaining WTC Matches:

• v Bangladesh, Dec 14-18, Chattogram
• against Bangladesh, Dec 22-26, Dhaka
• against Australia, February 2023, TBD
• against Australia, February 2023, TBD
• against Australia, March 2023, TBD
• against Australia, March 2023, TBD

South Africa

South Africa has two more series to go and is currently second on the points table. They will play three Tests in Australia next year and two at home against the West Indies. If the Proteas win the home tests but lose all their away games, they will drop to 53.33 and their chances of participating in the WTC final will be questionable.

Therefore, if South Africa lose the Test series against Australia 1-2, but a clean sweep against the West Indies at home, it will take them to 60% and stay in contention.

Remaining WTC Programs in South Africa:

• against Australia, December 17-21, Brisbane
• against Australia, December 26-30, Melbourne
• v Australia, Sydney, January 4-8
• against West Indies, 28 Feb – 4 March, Centurion
• against West Indies, March 8-12, Johannesburg

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has only two away tests left and is currently in third place with a percentage of 53.33%. If they win both, their points rise to 61.11 and they remain in the WTC finals race.

Sri Lanka’s Remaining WTC Matches:

• against New Zealand, March 9–13, Christchurch
• against New Zealand, March 17-21, Wellington