What would a trade for a QB look like for Bucs?
A lot has changed for the Bucs in the last 24 hours. They went from being hopeful that their Super Bowl-winning, future Hall of Fame quarterback would return to the team for a year last year, to now being left in the barren desert that quarterback-needy teams are.
The free agent market is suspect at best. The trading market is expensive as hell. According to Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report the internal options fall short. That leaves one last opportunity for the team to remain competitive this year. The Bucs could draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
What quarterbacks could be available at Pick 19?
Currently, among most draft analysts, there are three to four quarterbacks likely to be selected in the first round of the upcoming design. Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis, and Florida’s Anthony Richardson have all shown the potential to become franchise quarterbacks. Stroud and Young are both expected to fall off the board on the first five picks. Levis and Richardson are both potential top 10-to-20 picks.
The Bucs could sit quietly and hope one of them falls for them. That requires the team to have a strong opinion on all four. The Chargers felt that way in 2020 with all three top quarterbacks in that draft (Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert). That allowed Los Angeles to stay with choice number 6 and choose which of the three was still available, instead of using precious design resources to pay the bounty to go upstairs to get “their man.”
But there is a big difference between holding choice #6 with three potential targets and holding choice #19 with four potential targets. At least 10 of the teams that choose Tampa Bay could argue for a new signal caller. The odds of the Bucs rating all four players highly enough to want to draft them with their pick in the first round AND none of those 10 other teams rating all four equally is slim to none.
Bucs will most likely have to advance to secure a QB
Discerning what it would take to move up the ranks in design is a little more art than science. Numerous trade value calculators have been developed over the years. But no one can tell you with any certainty what the cost would be because not every team in the NFL follows the same chart. Instead, it’s best to consider the most quoted of those charts while also looking at similar trades that have taken place recently.
First round transactions 2021/2022
Look at the trades that took place last season and you will see that the premium for entering the top 10 is extremely high. Here are the first round of trade-ups from the past two years.
- 2022 – New Orleans Saints trade from No. 16 to No. 11. The cost to New Orleans of moving up just five places was pick No. 98 and pick No. 120.
- 2022-Philadelphia Eagles trade from No. 15 to No. 13. The cost for Philadelphia to move up only two spots was No. 124, No. 162, and No. 166 overall picks.
- 2022-Detroit Lions trade from 32 to 12. In the biggest jump of the draft, the Lions jumped twenty places, giving up pick No. 32, pick No. 34, and pick No. 66 for picks No. 12 and No. 46.
- 2021-San Francisco 49ers rise from No. 12 to No. 3. The cost to San Francisco was a first and third round pick in 2022 and a first round pick in 2023.
- 2021-Miami Dolphins move up from No. 12 to No. 6. The Dolphins also got the deal’s fifth round pick (No. 156 overall), while giving up the No. 123 pick and a 2022 first-round pick.
- 2021-Philadelphia Eagles rise from No. 12 to No. 10. The Eagles gave up the 84th overall pick in the deal.
- 2021-Chicago traded from pick 20 to pick 11 while giving up that draft’s 164th overall pick plus a 2022 first round pick and a 2022 fourth round pick.
- 2021-New York Jets traded from No. 23 to No. 14. The Jets also gave up picks No. 66 and No. 86 while getting pick No. 143 back.
Using these trades, we can estimate the cost to the Bucs of moving from pick No. 19 to the top 10 if they choose to get a quarterback in the draft.
Here’s an estimate of the package the Bucs would have to give up to move into any spot in the Top 10.
- Pick No. 10 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 First Round, 2024 Fourth Round
- Pick No. 9 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 First Round, 2024 Third Round
- Pick No. 8 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 First Round, 2024 Third Round, 2025 Sixth Round
- Pick No. 7 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 First Round, 2024 Second Round, 2025 Fifth Round
- Pick No. 6 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 First Round, 2024 Third Round, 2025 Second Round
- Pick No. 5 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 First Round, 2024 Second Round, 2023 First Round
- Pick No. 4 – Pick No. 19 in 2023, 2024 First Round, 2024 Second Round, 2023 First Round, 2024 Second Round
For picks No. 1-3, the Bucs should include their second-round pick on top of the pack for pick No. 4 this year. Given the gaps in the roster at the moment it is very likely they are not willing to provide that.
The evaluation the team would have to have on these draftable quarterbacks would have to be extremely high to give up these assets. That move would also tie head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht to the success or failure of whoever they select. It would be a giant gamble that would shape the organization’s direction for years to come.